Investors Hated This Amazon Announcement in February. Now It Looks Genius.
View original at nasdaq.com“For reference, Amazon's trailing-12-month free cash flow peaked at $53 billion in mid-2024.”
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Over the long run, Amazon should generate even more free cash flow than before the AI investment cycle, exceeding the prior TTM peak of $53 billion reached in mid-2024.
60% confidenceAmazon's $200 billion capex plan is not a top-line revenue grab; management has confidence the investments will yield strong returns on invested capital.
60% confidenceAmazon is monetizing AWS capacity as quickly as it is installed.
60% confidenceAmazon's massive jump in capex spending in 2026 could result in negative free cash flow for the business in 2026.
60% confidenceAmazon stock is still fairly attractive at the current price given the long-term opportunity to accelerate AWS and produce massive free cash flow by the end of the decade.
60% confidenceA $1,000 investment in Nvidia when Stock Advisor doubled down in 2009 would be worth $540,224 as of April 26, 2026.
60% confidenceA $1,000 investment in Netflix when Stock Advisor doubled down in 2004 would be worth $498,522 as of April 26, 2026.
60% confidenceA $1,000 investment in Apple when Stock Advisor doubled down in 2008 would be worth $51,615 as of April 26, 2026.
60% confidenceMuch of AWS capex expected to be spent in 2026 will be monetized in 2027-2028, and Amazon already has customer commitments covering a substantial portion of that capex.
60% confidenceAWS's AI-specific revenue reached a $15 billion annual run rate earlier in 2026 and is growing extremely quickly.
60% confidenceMythos is too dangerous to release to the public; it will instead be offered with limited access to select enterprises to secure their codebases before any broader release.
60% confidence