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Source document· March 3, 2026

Stocks Settle Lower on Iran War Anxiety

View original at nasdaq.com
Stocks Settle Lower on Iran War Anxiety The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed down -0.94%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.83%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -1.09%…
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  • Real-time risk premium for crude oil is $18/bbl, corresponding to impact of six-week full halt to tanker traffic in Strait of Hormuz

    80% confidence

  • Inflation has been above Fed's objective for nearly five years, so no room to be complacent

    80% confidence

  • Iran will set fire to any ship attempting to pass through Strait of Hormuz

    80% confidence

  • Ordered US Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for maritime trade through Gulf at reasonable price

    80% confidence

  • US Navy will begin escorting tankers through Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible if necessary

    80% confidence

  • Combat operations against Iran could last for weeks until all objectives completed

    80% confidence

  • S&P 500 earnings growth expected to climb 8.4% in Q4, marking tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth

    80% confidence

  • Additional Fed interest rate cuts will be warranted if inflation slows further once most of tariff impact has passed

    80% confidence

  • Excluding Magnificent Seven megacap tech stocks, Q4 earnings expected to increase 4.6%

    80% confidence

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Two significantly different EPS values (10.21 vs 2.68 USD_per_share) are reported for Morgan Stanley on the same observation date (2025-12-31). Fact A specifies FY 2025, while Fact B's 'N/A' fiscal period is ambiguous. If both represent FY 2025 annual EPS, these values directly conflict. The magnitude of the difference (3.8x) is too large to attribute to rounding or minor calculation variations. The missing fiscal period in Fact B raises data quality concerns, but same-date observation + same attribute should reference the same period.
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