Top Fed officials rethink rate cuts as peace talks begin

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• The Iran War is likely to drive up inflation in the near term

  60% confidence

• Jerome Powell should slash interest rates to 1% or lower

  60% confidence

• Economic challenges from the Iran War could resolve later this year if supply disruptions in the energy market resolve relatively soon

  60% confidence

• Jerome Powell is a moron and is 'Too Late' on rate cuts

  60% confidence

• The Middle East conflict could lead to a more difficult dynamic in which prices are rising at the same time that the U.S. economy is slowing, and this has begun to play out already

  60% confidence

• The central bank's current wait-and-see approach to interest-rate cuts is appropriate given additional risks to the Fed's dual mandate

  60% confidence

• Underlying inflation would continue to move toward 2%, leaving him cautious about rate cuts now and more inclined toward cuts to support the labor market later this year when the outlook is more steady

  60% confidence

• The energy developments have increased the risks of higher inflation further out if the energy crisis remains in place for a long period of time or gets worse

  60% confidence

• Monetary policymakers would be open to cutting interest rates again later this year if peace in the Middle East was reached in a timely manner

  60% confidence

Data points we hold from this source