AGNC (AGNC) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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• Net new Agency MBS supply 2025 approximately $200 billion at lower end of expectations due to primary mortgage rate persistently above 6%

  80% confidence

• Banks added $50 billion mortgages and $200 billion Treasuries in 2025 with potential rotation from Treasuries to MBS when Basel Endgame reforms clarify in Q1

  80% confidence

• Fed expected to end balance sheet runoff within next few months with reserves just under $3 trillion

  80% confidence

• The really important thing is that we either maintain mortgage spreads or narrow them further to help the American people

  80% confidence

• At 6% mortgage rate, 20% of market has 50 bps incentive to refinance; at 5%, 30% refinanceable; at 4%, 40% refinanceable

  80% confidence

• The third quarter may have been one of the fourth best quarter over the last 10 years

  80% confidence

• 100 bps funding cost differential provides approximately $0.05 potential earnings improvement as rates decline

  80% confidence

• Money manager bond fund inflows on pace for $450 billion annual inflows, currently running $8.5 billion per day

  80% confidence

• Agency MBS outperformed U.S. Treasuries for 5 consecutive months, sequence not seen since 2013

  80% confidence

• The administration's focused on mortgage spreads, in my opinion, is unprecedented

  80% confidence

• Expected ROE for current coupon is 16-18% versus AGNC total cost of capital of approximately 17%

  80% confidence

• October book value unchanged to slightly up as of late prior week

  80% confidence

• The mortgage market has responded well to this approach

  80% confidence

• Evidence of faster pull-through of refinance activity with borrowers refinancing with as little as 25 bps incentive in some cases

  80% confidence

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