Fed meeting live updates: Federal Reserve expected to hold rates steady, share outlook amid Iran oil shock
View original at finance.yahoo.comFed meeting live updates: Federal Reserve expected to hold rates steady, share outlook amid Iran oil shock The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, but markets will be closely watching for signs of how the war in Iran could affect the…
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The US economy may be strong — but it's delicate
60% confidenceIf Powell sounds hawkish and the US dollar index pushes back above 100, that could pressure the trades investors have piled into abroad. A softer tone would ease that pressure and give emerging markets stocks and commodities more room.
60% confidenceThe war in the Middle East has increased volatility in global energy prices and financial markets, and heightened the risks to the global economy. The breadth and duration of the conflict, and hence its economic impacts, are highly uncertain.
60% confidenceThe supply shock is resulting in a market lowering growth expectations and increasing inflation expectations. That's manifesting in doubts about future profitability and the path forward for global interest rates.
60% confidenceThe level to watch is 100 on the dollar index. A clean break above it tightens the screws. Another rejection keeps the global risk trade alive.
60% confidenceA few weeks ago, the big debate inside the Fed was how far rates are from neutral. Now the picture is changing and will be defined largely by how long the war in Iran lasts and how long high oil prices linger.
60% confidenceThe Federal Reserve and mortgage rates are working on two ends of a timeline. The Fed steers short-term interest rates, and mortgage rates are influenced by long-term bonds.
60% confidenceThe supply shock is resulting in a market lowering growth expectations and increasing inflation expectations. That's manifesting in doubts about future profitability and the path forward for global interest rates.
60% confidencePowell does not have to move rates to move markets. If he sounds hawkish and the US dollar index pushes back above 100, that could pressure the trades investors have piled into abroad. A softer tone would ease that pressure and give emerging markets stocks and commodities more room.
60% confidenceThe Fed's main impact on the stock market is to confirm or reject expectations about rates and the economy.
60% confidenceThe oil shock from the Iran war could deepen divisions within the central bank on the inflation outlook
60% confidenceThe Fed's main impact on the stock market is to confirm or reject expectations about rates and the economy
60% confidenceThe war in the Middle East has increased volatility in global energy prices and financial markets, and heightened the risks to the global economy. The breadth and duration of the conflict, and hence its economic impacts, are highly uncertain.
60% confidence
Data points we hold from this source
| Federal Reserve · inflation target | 2 percent |