Intel outlines path to 45% client market share and signals 14A foundry customer decisions by late 2026

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• Intel is disappointed that they are not able to fully meet the demand in their markets

  80% confidence

• The first quarter is the trough with improvement expected in Q2

  80% confidence

• Rising component pricing could limit Intel's revenue opportunity in 2026

  80% confidence

• Non-GAAP gross margin came in at 37.9%, 140 basis points ahead of guidance

  80% confidence

• Intel's ASIC business grew more than 50% in 2025, reaching an annualized revenue run rate greater than $1 billion in Q4

  80% confidence

• Intel is ramping up tool spending quite a bit in 2026 relative to 2025 to address supply shortfall

  80% confidence

• Intel expects factory network to improve available supply beginning in Q2 and for each of the remaining quarters in 2026

  80% confidence

• The era of artificial intelligence is driving unprecedented demand for semiconductor across the entire compute landscapes

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• 2025 was a year of solid progress and Intel is a more focus and execution driven company

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• Intel 14A foundry customers will have risk production in later part of 2027 and real production volume production in 2028

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• Intel is now shipping first products built on Intel 18A

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• Intel would be well above seasonal revenue if they had all the supply to hit the revenue

  80% confidence

• Panther Lake is still dilutive to the corporate average gross margin

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• Intel's ASIC business is already at a run rate of $1 billion with robust demand and excited customers

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• Intel delivered fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.15 versus guidance of $0.08

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• Improving yields and throughput are a great driver of supply increases

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• Core Ultra Series 3 is expected to be the most broadly adopted and globally available AIPC platform Intel has ever delivered

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• Intel is laser-focused on 16 channels Diamond Rapid and simplified the product road map to accelerate the introduction of Coral Rapid

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• Intel expects Foundry revenue up double digits quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026

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• Fourth quarter revenue was $13.7 billion at the high end of the range provided in October

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• Operating expenses for 2026 are targeted at $16 billion

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• Q4 marks the fifth consecutive quarter of revenue above guidance even as Intel navigates industry-wide supply constraints

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• Customers will begin to make firm supplier decision on Intel 14A starting in the second half of 2026 and extending into the first half of 2027

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• Intel 14A development remains on track

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• Capital expenditures for 2026 are planned to be flat to down slightly with heavier weighting in the first half

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• Intel is on the path of 45% market share and profitability in both notebooks and desktops over the next several years

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• In the second half of 2026, foundry customers will indicate what kind of capacity firm commitment for Intel 14A

  80% confidence

• The industry is facing a very big challenge with memory constraint and also pricing

  80% confidence

• Both CCG and DCAI will be down in Q1 2026 as a function of supply

  80% confidence