Valley National Bancorp outlines 11%-13% net interest income growth for 2026 amid core deposit momentum

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• Recent additions to teams in New Jersey, California and Florida have already generated loan and deposit activity

  80% confidence

• If the economy stays in the current situation, the trend of classified asset improvement is expected to continue in 2026 and into 2027

  80% confidence

• Net interest income will grow between 11% and 13% in 2026

  80% confidence

• Benefits between now and end of 2026 will be fairly balanced between loan and deposit sides of balance sheet, with $1.8 billion of fixed rate loans maturing in 2026 at around 4.7% coming back on 150 to 200 basis points higher

  80% confidence

• Medium and late-stage loan pipelines are exceptionally strong, up over $1 billion or nearly 70% from just a year ago

  80% confidence

• Strategic priorities for 2026 include igniting small business sales efforts, improving branch productivity and exploring new growth-oriented deposit niches

  80% confidence

• If no rate cuts occur, there would be approximately 0.5% to 1% headwind from net interest income

  80% confidence

• Management is conservatively assuming modest spread compression in the net interest income forecast

  80% confidence

• Core deposits grew nearly $4 billion or 9% year-over-year

  80% confidence

• Adjusted return on average assets of 1.14% represents the highest level since Q4 2022

  80% confidence

• Valley National achieved record earnings in Q4 2025 with net income of approximately $195 million or $0.33 per diluted share

  80% confidence

• Loan growth was strong, diverse and tightly aligned with relationship-focused strategy, with commercial real estate loans growing sequentially for the first time since Q2 2024

  80% confidence

• Management feels very strong about the lift off in the beginning of 2026 with significant tailwinds

  80% confidence

• Valley National exceeded expectations across all major metrics by year-end while strengthening capital and liquidity positions

  80% confidence

• First quarter tends to be somewhat softer as a result of lower day count, elevated payroll taxes within operating expenses and seasonal headwinds on both sides of the balance sheet

  80% confidence

• Valley National expects mid-single-digit loan growth for 2026 supported by roughly 10% C&I growth, low single-digit CRE growth and mid-single-digit consumer and residential growth

  80% confidence